The goal is not to win the argument — it's to win in the long run.
Finding value in political prediction markets
Spreads, props, hedging, and bankroll strategy
Building bots on Polymarket and beyond
Anything you can put a number on
We put our money where our mouths are. Here's how we're doing.
New episodes drop weekly. Here's what we've been arguing about lately.
Andrew's up 150% but sitting all cash. Matt shares his best current opportunities. The real playbook: bet what you know, chase rewards, use limit orders. Polymarket fee breakdown. Senate midterm odds paradox. Both bet Belgium to win the World Cup at 2¢.
Listen nowAndrew's Masters portfolio imploded after drunk trading in Italy. Matt buys a World Cup arbitrage basket. A Polymarket "money glitch" on aliens. Andrew discovers weather betting and live-trades London temps. Plus: a 7-team Stanley Cup basket and a Frenchman with a hairdryer.
Listen nowDeep dives, trade breakdowns, and strategy pulled from the show.
Real trade data from a $7,500 Polymarket position. Entry at 16¢, exits up to 90¢.
The entire field on Polymarket adds up to 102.2% overround. Buy favorites for 75¢ on the dollar.
A viral tweet claims 31% guaranteed profit on the World Cup. The math is real but the logic has holes.
Free tools to help you think in probabilities and find +EV opportunities.
Convert between American, decimal, and fractional odds. Calculate implied probability and no-vig true odds.
Use Tool →Enter your bets across multiple outcomes to find arbitrage opportunities and see P&L per scenario.
Use Tool →Enter odds and your estimated true probability to find expected value, ROI, and whether a bet is +EV.
Use Tool →Strip the bookmaker's juice to see true implied probabilities and fair odds on any line.
Use Tool →Enter your original bet and desired profit to see exactly what you need on the other side to lock it in.
Use Tool →Build a parlay with 2–15 legs in any odds format. See total odds, payout, profit, and estimated house edge.
Use Tool →Two guys who think everything is a market, every decision has odds, and every argument deserves a bet on the outcome.
Ex-professional poker player turned marketing executive. Former CMO of ExpressVPN. Banned by multiple sportsbooks. Ten-year election betting winning streak.
Marketer, AI tinkerer, and newly minted prediction market enthusiast. Builder of trading bots — with mixed results.
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