The goal isn't to win the argument. It's to win in the long run.
Finding value in political prediction markets
Spreads, props, hedging, and bankroll strategy
Building bots on Polymarket and beyond
Anything you can put a number on
We put our money where our mouths are. Here's how we're doing.
New episodes drop weekly. Here's what we've been arguing about lately.
Andrew and I both forgot we were recording, so this one’s off the cuff. A Week 1 recap, a 30-seat midterm line, why I’m selling Harris and stacking Newsom, a new season-long head-to-head on Circa Million rules, and Week 2 bets.
Three Super Bowl baskets scored against each other all season: Andrew’s, mine, and one my AI built off the win-totals model. Plus betting against the Dolphins every game, Magic Markets, Circa’s $20 million survivor pool, and Week 1 bets.
Deep dives, trade breakdowns, and strategy pulled from the show.
Real trade data from a $7,500 Polymarket position. Entry at 16¢, exits up to 90¢.
Nine teams, one champion. Six tickets to zero, and Carolina paid for the whole field.
8 of the 10 closest Senate races lean blue. The market still says the GOP keeps the chamber. Here's the math, and my 20-unit bet.
Free tools to help you think in probabilities and find +EV opportunities.
Convert between American, decimal, and fractional odds. Calculate implied probability and no-vig true odds.
Use Tool →Enter your bets across multiple outcomes to find arbitrage opportunities and see P&L per scenario.
Use Tool →Enter odds and your estimated true probability to find expected value, ROI, and whether a bet is +EV.
Use Tool →Strip the bookmaker's juice to see true implied probabilities and fair odds on any line.
Use Tool →Enter your original bet and desired profit to see exactly what you need on the other side to lock it in.
Use Tool →Build a parlay with 2–15 legs in any odds format. See total odds, payout, profit, and estimated house edge.
Use Tool →Two guys who think everything is a market, every decision has odds, and every argument deserves a bet on the outcome.
Ex-professional poker player turned marketing executive. Former CMO of ExpressVPN. Banned by multiple sportsbooks. Ten-year election betting winning streak.
Marketer, AI tinkerer, and newly minted prediction market enthusiast. Builder of trading bots, with mixed results.
We built an iPhone app: 7 original poker card games to play with friends, one running ledger to settle who's ahead. No wagers, no stakes, no real-money play.
Meet the 7 Games →New episodes drop weekly. Subscribe on your favorite platform.